What will happen in the new year?

In what is, apparently, his "33^rd annual office pool," legendary NYT columnist William Safire (who now chairs the Dana Foundation) offers a set of multiple-choice questions regarding possible outcomes for the year-to-be. What do you think?

Safire -- who, it seems, in 1969, while a Nixon speechwriter, wrote a short speech to be delivered in the event of the Apollo 11 astronauts being stranded on the moon and (a memo prepared by NASA for Nixon and Vice President Agnew that suggested statements in the event of Apollo "crew fatalities" also is part of the linked document) -- instructs us that we either must pick one, all, or none of the options for each question. His answers and mine follow the questionnaire (a word I'll never forget how to spell as it is similar in construction to "personnel," which I once misspelled to be eliminated from a regional spelling bee]).

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1. The “O’Connorless Supreme Court” will decide
(a) without reversing Roe v. Wade to uphold laws restricting late-term abortion because they do not impose an “undue burden” on women
(b) that public schools in Seattle and Louisville, in their zeal to prevent re-segregation, have gone too far in using race in selection of students
(c) to reject Massachusetts’ case to force the Environmental Protection Agency to raise auto emissions standards, holding that “global warming” gives the state no standing to sue without new law

2. Dow Jones industrials will
(a) reflect 4 percent economic growth to rise in 2007 to close above 14,000
(b) fall out of bed to 10,000 in what the Republicans will claim is the Democratic recession
(c) soar to 15,000 before ending the year around 14,000
(d) change from a boring numerical index to lively prose opinions in the with-it Wall Street Journal

3. Bipartisan achievement of 110th Congress and Bush White House will be
(a) blue-ribbon Social Security panel providing cover to raise retirement age to 70 for those now under 50
(b) passage of Leahy-Pence shield law permitting whistleblowers to expose corruption to reporters without fear of being ratted out by runaway prosecutors
(c) immigration reform allowing earned citizenship of current illegals and installing 1,700-mile fence named after the nativist Millard Fillmore
(d) substantial minimum-wage increase with reduction but not elimination of “death tax”

4. Congress will override Bush veto of
(a) federal support of stem-cell research
(b) federal negotiation of drug prices

5. The word most often heard in 110th Congress will be
(a) sellout
(b) compromise
(c) subpoena
(d) civility
(e) payback

6. The Oscar for best picture in a year of great pictures will go to
(a) Martin Scorsese’s “Departed”
(b) Paul Greengrass’s “United 93”
(c) Clint Eastwood’s “Letters From Iwo Jima”
(d) Stephen Frears’s “Queen”
(e) Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris’s “Little Miss Sunshine”

7. The level of American troops in Iraq at year’s end will be
(a) over 100,000, down from surged 160,000
(b) under 100,000, down from today’s unsurged 140,000
(c) under 80,000 with announced timetable for downsizing in 2008 to 40,000 in secure Iraqi Kurdistan

8. Iraq will be
(a) in full-scale civil war
(b) on the road to shaky democracy with insurgency weakening
(c) split three ways with Kirkuk as capital of Kurdistan

9. Iran at year’s end will be
(a) more intransigent than ever and on the way to matching North Korea’s nuclear weapon
(b) more reasonable after plunge in oil income, anti-terrorism boycott, labor-student unrest and global sanctions
(c) red-faced at double cross from Arab Iraqi Shiites

10. Publishing sleeper-seller will be
(a) “Sacred Games” by Vikram Chandra, a gangster novel like an Indian “Godfather”
(b) Jim Lehrer’s novel “The Phony Marine”

and in non-fiction
(c) “Spy Wars: Moles, Mysteries and Deadly Games,” by a retired spook, Tennent Bagley, which refutes C.I.A. groupthink about the molehunter James Angleton being paranoid
(d) “Father’s Day,” by Buzz Bissinger, about his twin sons, one exceptional and the other damaged

11. Internal party struggle will be
(a) John Edwards’s labor-appealing protectionism versus Hillary Clinton’s championing of Nafta-style free trade
(b) John McCain as pro-life versus Rudy Giuliani as pro-choice
(c) cognitive dissonance of anti-bias liberals at bias toward a conservative Mormon candidate

12. Scientific news will be in
(a) neuro-circuitry
(b) deep brain stimulation in treating depression
(c) sequencing the genome of higher apes in studying evolution
(d) vaccine approaches to treatment of Alzheimer’s as well as eradication of malaria
(e) gene duplication to detect mental illness
(f) commercial hype about cranial calisthenics

13. Year-end polls of likely primary voters will have in the lead among Democrats
(a) Clinton
(b) Obama
(c) Edwards
(d) Gore
(e) Richardson-Biden-Dodd-Dean

and among Republicans
(a) McCain
(b) Romney
(c) Giuliani
(d) Gingrich-Rice-Brownback-Hagel

14. Time and chance will happeneth to all predictions if
(a) McCain scampily blows his stack
(b) Clinton freezes over
(c) Romney is brainwashed
(d) Obama loses his cool over press interest in “Rezkogate”

15. Key factor in swing-voter choice of next president will be
(a) experience
(b) freshness
(c) character
(d) name recognition
(e) seizure of health-care issue
(f) Internet organization

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Safire's responses: 1 (all) 2 (c) 3 (b) 4 (both) 5 (c) 6 (d) 7 (a) 8 (b) 9 (b) 10 (c) 11 (a) 12 (all) 13 (a), (a) 14 (all) 15 (c)

My uninformed guesses: 1 (a) 2 (a) 3 (c) 4 (none) 5 (b) 6 (a) 7 (a) 8 (b) 9 (none) 10 (d) 11 (a) 12 (b) 13 (a), (a) 14 (none) 15 (c)

Back to Eastern Time, work, and blogging

Last night on my Northwest flight from the Twin Cities to Reagan, I finished a very funny book purchased while home for the holidays. John Blumenthal's Millard Fillmore, Mon Amour is the tale of a neurotic SoCal 30-something who tries desperately to make sense of life and love -- all the while, trying to finish his comprehensive 10-volume biography of the largely-forgotten (and forgettable) 13th POTUS. In some sense, I suppose I could say that it's Monk meets me.

If it's a novel, I finish it (more or less) in one "sitting," and it's not written for fourth graders, it's gotta be good, so I highly recommend that you give it a read.

RIP, Leslie Lynch King, Jr.; and limiting presidential service

While surfing just now, I saw that Gerald Ford has passed away at 93 at his home in southern California. He was president when I was born, so I have a special place in my heart for old Jerry despite the fact that he was the butt of many a joke (most notably, of course, by: [1] Chevy Chase during his [i.e., Chase] brief stint on SNL [couldn't find a video thereof on YouTube or Google Video] [somewhat little-known fact: CC played drums in a "bad jazz band" called The Leather Canary in the late '60s and that group was headed by Fagen and Becker, the creative forces behind the world's greatest band ever]; and [2] The Simpsons). I had forgotten that Ford was a member of the Warren Commission and, as it turns out, he was the last surviving member of that presumably-august-but-oft-questioned panel. Also, he was the target of not one, but two assassination attempts within three weeks in September 1975, thus fulfilling another criterion for inclusion in history's memory (at least, according to me).

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On a quasi-related note, CSM is running an interesting op-ed today by Jonathan Zimmerman of NYU, in which Zimmerman argues for a repeal of presidential term limits. His main point is that if a president is no longer "electable," he is no longer accountable (a la W). His secondary contention is that the American people have enough "long-term common sense," as Eisenhower put it, to know when to boot out an ineffectual chief executive.

It's funny that this arises now because just yesterday (Xmas Day), I had a brief conversation with others (all of whom, I assume, voted for W [at least, in '04]) and the general consensus was that W doesn't really care as long as it's (i.e., "the war on terror") cleaned up by his successor.

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I've really got to get to bed. Good night.

Tara Conner, Katie Rees, et al

In the wake of the recent beauty queen scandals, Salon provides us with Miss America 1998's viewpoint, which, of course, is the last word (note sarcasm here).

Christmas thoughts from WaPo

In my day-to-day work, I often decry the editorial pages of The Washington Post, but today, they got it right.

Please read on and here's to you and yours having a nice Christmas Day.

Christmas
A story of hope, as needed as ever
Monday, December 25, 2006; Page A28

"AND IT CAME to pass in those days, that there went out a decree from Caesar Augustus that all the world should be taxed." So begins the Christmas story in the Gospel of Luke. There's some historical dispute about whether such a decree was issued around that time, but let that pass, too. It's an important part of the story now, a story not just of divinity, as it's seen by Christians, but of humanity -- and for all of us.

The Augustan Age of ancient Rome is generally regarded as a glorious period, a time when the empire was well-ruled, prosperous and full of creative activity. But, as ever, a lot depended on where you were and what your station was. In the eastern reaches, people could be displaced and driven about by great impersonal forces, made to answer to the whims of distant governors. A vast, efficient, civilizing empire that was also marked by cruelty and cold indifference ruled over a volatile part of the world riven by religious fanaticism and hatreds, tribal contention, and other conflicts.

The universal appeal of the Christmas story lies in its portrayal of a universal experience -- childbirth -- overcoming the most distressful of circumstances and bringing forth new life and new hope. It is a story of warmth, light and love. As he grew, Jesus of Nazareth conveyed a message that was to set a difficult path for those who believed deeply: to give up everything they owned and loved to follow him. But another part of his message has, like the Bethlehem story, inspired and comforted people of many faiths and was not much different from what has been preached there and in many other places: of the transforming power of love, the importance of humility, forgiveness, generosity and tolerance. The message of peace.

Today our own country, while never untroubled, is enjoying itself on an Augustan scale. But there is, of course, no peace. A good many of our noblest -- the Roman allusion is merited here -- are in difficult and dangerous conditions in that same faraway part of the world where the story of this day was set. And today a good number of them, whether religious or not, will take needed comfort in the old tale and in the atmosphere of the day and the greetings from home -- most now carried instantaneously on a glowing screen, which is the new light of Christmas and bearer of good tidings. Keep it shining this day, long and often.

Merry Christmas to all...

...and to all a good night.